Day 1079 [Sep. 16/11 JST] – The Final Day

Today's Report

Sep. 16/11 1300 JST 

Position:  35°08'N, 139°36'E

Remaining to Yokohama:  20 nm / 99.9% finished, (ETA: Sep. 17)

The weather gods have smiled kindly on the last day of Saito Challenge 8, for which we thank them and forgive the five recent typhoons, the one possibly coming early next week, and even the three-day gale that stopped Saito-san dead in his wake at Cape Horn and delayed tomorrow's return by more than 2 years.

It may or may not rain a bit in the morning but that will seem like fair skies after 3 years of dealing with weather as if it was a life-or-death matter. That's because it was.

Nicole BMW Shuten-dohji III is still on schedule to reach Yokohama tomorrow morning between 10:00 and 10:30. Saito-san is expected to come in with the sails raised (as much as the Hawaii repairs allow), do a few victory laps, dowse the sails one last time, then settle NBSDIII at the floating dock like a big, tired seabird finally coming to rest.

He left Japan 1,080 days previously, facing huge risks, knowing the chances of failure, even death, were substantial, but never wavering with a broad smile that could probably have been seen from the top of Mt. Fuji.

Here is the last time we saw him with his chase boat, Magellan Major, from a lookout point near the Kenzaki Lighthouse Start Line 20 nm south of Yokohama. 

Photo evidence that he was STILL smiling...!

Oct. 2, 2008

Arrival Time & Place:

10:00 a.m. – 11:15 a.m., Saturday, Sept 17, at Minato Mirai Pukari Pier, Yokohama

http://www.welcome.city.yokohama.jp/eng/tourism/spot/spot1050.html#05

Following the welcome, NBSDIIII will move to the jetty at nearby Elephant Nose Park where she will remain for the rest of the three-day weekend.

Day 1078 [Sep. 15/11 JST] – Saito-san Leaves Just in Time!

Today's Report

Sep. 15/11 1300 JST 

Position:  33°30'N, 139°47'E

Remaining to Yokohama:  90 nm / 99.9% finished, (ETA: Sep. 17)

Nicole BMW Shuten-dohji III is on schedule to reach Yokohama Saturday, with weather and winds cooperating -- but just barely. Saito-san has never sounded as upbeat as he has the past several days as the anticipation builds.

In Tokyo and Yokohama, media arrangements are being made, with two of the six main TV channels sending camera crews, and several major newspapers, and at least one foreign one, planning to send news teams.

Saito-san will meet up with Magellan Major, the spotting boat that saw him off on October 2, 2008, at the official start line at Kenzaki Lighthouse.

The weather continues to look quite favorable over the next 48 hours, expected to be cloudy and fair on Saturday. 

There IS an area typhoon, in fact TWO but the first and bigger one (Roke) has moved sharply west and does not present a problem.

The second smaller one, No. 19, is closely following Saito's path but he will be in Yokohama before it nears Japan according to projections. It has only appeared on the weather screen in the past 8 hours.

Two typhoons shown in 36-hour projection

Next week's forecast calls for rain & thunderstorms for Yokohama from Monday or Tuesday straight through to next weekend. Typhoon No. 19 is projected to veer to the east before it reaches Japan, but Hachijojima looks like it has at least some chance of getting clobbered as early as Tuesday.

So a day or two later departure date might have caused still another drawn-out delay.

Whew. We would NOT have wanted to break that bit of news to Saito-san!

Please note that the arrival time Saturday has been moved up 30 minutes.

Arrival Date & Place:

10:00 a.m. – 11:15 a.m., Saturday, Sept 17, at Minato Mirai Pukari Pier, Yokohama

  

Following the welcome, NBSDIIII will move to the jetty at nearby Elephant Nose Park where she will remain for the rest of the three-day weekend.

Day 1076 [Sep. 13/11 JST] – Arrival Set for a Befitting National Holiday Weekend

Today's Report

Sep. 13/11 JST 

Position:  33°08'N, 139°48'E

Remaining to Hachijojima:  In port

Remaining to Yokohama:  140 nm / 99.8% finished, (ETA: Sat., Sep 17) days)

We set the date for his arrival, which may be wet, but at least – right now – there is no typhoon in the forecast. If you are in Japan, come welcome him this Saturday at 10:00 --11:15 am in Yokohama. [Please note the slightly earlier time change.]

Strictly by coincidence – honest! – Saito-san returns to Japan at the start of a three-day national holiday weekend. Monday is the nation's annual "Respect for the Elderly Day."

If we'd had the pull, we'd have asked the powers-that-be to set it aside especially for him, but this is the next best thing: He will be 77 years, 8 months, and 10 days old on arrival.

Read here for the news story we prepared and Mike Seymour arranged to be published today in JapanToday.

You'll find there are already a lot of comments, including from one person who has proposed Saito-san as the next Prime Minister of Japan.

Hmmmm…!

Arrival Date & Place:

10:30 a.m. – 11:30 a.m., Saturday, Sept 17, at Minato Mirai Pukari Pier, Yokohama

Day 1075 [Sep. 12/11 JST] – In Port at Hachijojima

 Today's Report

Sep. 12/11 JST 

Position:  33°08'N, 139°48'E

Remaining to Hachijojima:  In port

Remaining to Yokohama:  140 nm / 99.8% finished, (ETA: 5 days)

An easy arrival just in time for lunch yesterday closed the 380 nm move from Chichijima Island to Hachijojima Island, with all onboard systems working well, and the weather also cooperating. Assisted by improved winds he was able to sail up to the last hour and then motor the rest of the way into the fishing harbor at the northeast corner of the main island, arriving a bit after 1100. He was given assistance at the pier by Mr. Takeuchi, the owner/operator of a Yanmar-certified marine services company there.

Fishing harbor on Hachijojima

 As we mentioned yesterday, Hachijojima has an interesting history as the outermost of the Seven Izu Islands, going back thousands of years to the Jomon Period. We've always been fascinated by the stories of the criminals and political exiles banished to the islands back in the 16^th to 18^th centuries. Elaborately long expositions can be seen written into walls of volcanic rock deeply etched, apparently by prisoners, but in Kanji almost indecipherable to modern Japanese eyes.

  

Hachijo – its popular nickname – is both the furthest out of the Seven Izu Islands, and among the most beautiful of the volcanic islands that stretch like a gorgeous string of pearls beginning near Tokyo Bay all the way out to the two Hachijo islands 140 nm distant (Hachijojima and the much smaller HachijoKO – "child" – jima). One can hardly fault Saito-san for his impatience to get there, nor for his obvious joy that came from his easy arrival at a place renown for its bountiful seafood and a wide choice of relaxing hot springs.

Details are still being worked out for how long he will stay there before the 30-hour sail he expects it will take to go the remainder of the way to Yokohama.

Day 1074 [Sep. 11/11 JST] – Hachijojima Arrival by Mid Morning

Today's Report

Sep. 11/11 0700 JST 

Position:  32°58'N, 139°59'E

Remaining to Hachijojima:  10 nm (ETA: 2 hrs)

Remaining to Yokohama:  140 nm / 99.8% finished, (ETA: 6 days – TBA)

Saito-san called an hour earlier than normal this morning to report he had the islands of Hachijojima in sight, their majestic 701- and 854-meter dormant double volcanoes easily visible about 7 nm off his port bow.

Hachijojima and Hachijokojima Islands, Wikipedia

Saito-san was planning to furl sails and turn on the engine in about two hours to motor the rest of the way in to a fishing harbor on the northeast corner of Hachijojima.

He sailed 102 nm in the period, reporting no particular problems as he moved to within a bit over a day of sailing time to reach the official ending point of his nearly 3-year circumnavigation. He will stay in Hachijo until mid-week, then depart – typhoons allowing – in order to make a scheduled Saturday morning, September 17, arrival in Yokohama.

Final word on the Yokohama arrival location and time will be issued later in the week as weather conditions are assessed for next weekend. Japan is currently at the height of the typhoon season, with 14 North Pacific storms already officially recorded. That number already matches the total number of storms in 2010, despite still another 2 months still remaining in this year's storm season which ends in November.

It is expected that the final 140 nm into Yokohama will take under 2 days to complete, which is the "weather window" he will require. Winds are notoriously weak in the Tokyo Bay area in August (showing this morning as being less than 4 kts).

Winds were good during the night mostly from the east at 11-14 kts. He called again at 0800 and said they had fallen to under 8 kts with boat speed dropping to 3 kts. "That means another 2 or 2½ hours before I can get there," he judged.

Weather continued to be unthreatening on ClearPoint projections – at least for the next several days.

A developing tropical depression is presently 700 nm SW of his position but looks to be staying on a safe track to Saito-san's northwest. (On ClearPoint it is shown to be roughly following the earlier path of Typhoon Kulap.) Meanwhile, a new and growing tropical storm can be seen 600 nm to his SE in the 4-day projection (image).

***

Distance in last 24 hours: 102 nm DOG / 102 nm DMG

DMG over last 5 days of sailing: 379 nm

Total distance completed: 28,355 nm

To Yokohama: 147 nm (measured)

To Hachijojima: 10 nm (measured)

ETA, Hachijojima: 3 hrs

ETA, Yokohama: 6 days (TBA)

Heading: 358°

Reported boat speed: 3.0 - 4.0 kt

Average boat speed: 4.4 kt

Weather: clear, scattered clouds

Temperature: 28.0° C

Barometer: 1018 hPa

Wind (from): 11-14 kts ESE & E

Waves: 2.0 m

Sails: Genoa 90%, staysail 0%, mainsail 2pt reef

Engine: 0 hrs

Generator: 9 hrs

[Weather and wind forecasts are from ClearPoint Weather, a Saito 8 Supporting Sponsor.]

Day 1073 [Sep. 10/11 JST] – Closing in on Hachijojima

Today's Report

Sep. 10/11 0800 JST 

Position:  31°19'N, 140°14'E

Remaining to Hachijojima:  107 nm (ETA: 1 day)

Remaining to Yokohama:  247 nm / 99.7% finished, (ETA: 7 days – TBA)

Saito-san knocked off 109 nm DMG under sail to close within a day of his last stop-over point of Hachijojima. He'll rest up, tend to some boat maintenance and – weather permitting – will depart later in the week for Yokohama.

We've been delaying an announcement of his Yokohama ETA, depending on how NBSDIII did in these past few hundred miles. The verdict is "very well" and so it is likely Saito-san will be able to complete his circumnavigation next Saturday, September 17. 

An official announcement of his ETA will be made probably on Wednesday, assuming that no new typhoons appear in the meantime. It is expected that the final 140 nm into Yokohama will take about 2 days to complete, which is the "weather window" he will require.

Winds were changeable during the night veering between E and ESE from light to moderately strong winds between 9 and 16 kts, Saito-san reported. He also noted a quite strong leeward drift that he's had to compensate for by correcting almost 15 degrees east. The winds were expected to continue at 13-14 kts out of the ESE and E today and into tomorrow.

He achieved a quite good 109 nm under sail, with no engine use for nearly three days. He ran the generator 9 hours in three 3-hour sessions and said the battery reserve now seems to be adequate, compared to running the generator twice a day in longer sessions. (He had commented yesterday that the draw-down on the batteries seemed to be increasing for some reason.)

Weather appeared unthreatening this morning on ClearPoint projections. Saito-san reported that several squalls carrying "cold rain" had passed through during the night.

***
Distance in last 24 hours: 109 nm DOG / 109 nm DMG

DMG over last 3 days of sailing: 281 nm

Total distance completed: 28,355 nm

To Yokohama: 247 nm (measured)

To Hachijojima: 107 nm (measured)

ETA, Hachijojima: 1 day

ETA, Yokohama: 7 days (TBA)

Heading: 0°

Reported boat speed: 4.0 - 4.5 kt

Average boat speed: 4.5 kt

Weather: overcast, occasional rain squalls

Temperature: 28.0° C

Barometer: 1019 hPa

Wind (from): 9-16 kts ESE & E

Waves: 1.5 - 2.0 m

Sails: Genoa 90%, staysail 0%, mainsail 2pt reef

Engine: 0 hrs

Generator: 9 hrs

[Weather and wind forecasts are from ClearPoint Weather, a Saito 8 Supporting Sponsor.]

Day 1072 [Sep. 9/11 JST] – Another Good Day Under Sail

Today's Report

Sep. 9/11 0800 JST 

Position:  29°41'N, 141°09'E

Remaining to Hachijojima:  210 nm (ETA: 2 days)

Remaining to Yokohama:  341 nm / 99.6% finished, (ETA: ?)

Winds were light during the night but returned this morning to put 5 kts occasionally on the knot log, with winds steady from the east. They were expected to continue that way between 11 – 13 kts for a near-perfect broad reach the rest of today and into tomorrow.

He achieved 95 nm under sail during the period as he kept the engine off. The generator ran 11 hours to keep batteries topped off.

He again reported that everything was fine aboard ship and was pleased with his progress. He has adjusted his ETA for "some time Sunday, probably in the morning."

He called Mike Seymour later in the morning and in that call indicated he was having to charge the batteries longer than normal (usually about 9 or 10 hours in two sessions) and asked for advice. The batteries were replaced in Chile and are actually heavy-duty truck batteries, rather than the original deep-cycle marine batteries added in Hawaii during the initial refit. This may or may not be a developing problem and will looked into after he arrives at Hachijojima in a few days.

Typhoon Kulap, No. 14, has been relegated to a tropical lowappears to present no threat to Saito-san as it heads 11 kts NNW obliquely away from his position. As of 0800 today it was 525 nm west and should be 545 nm further away by tomorrow.

Update: By the noontime locator beacon position today he was 199 nm from Hachijojima, averaging 4.8 kts since 0600.

***
Distance in last 24 hours: 95 nm DOG / 95 nm DMG

Total distance completed: 28,114 nm

To Yokohama: 341 nm (measured)

To Hachijojima: 210 nm (measured)

DMG over last 2 days of sailing: 168 nm (measured) 

ETA, Yokohama: ? days

Heading: 345°

Reported boat speed: 4.5 - 5.0 kt

Average boat speed: 4.0 kt

Weather: clear w/ scattered clouds; mild

Temperature: 28.0° C

Barometer: 1012 hPa

Wind (from): 8-12 kts E

Waves: 1.5 - 2.0 m

Sails: Genoa 90%, staysail 0%, mainsail 2pt reef

Engine: 0 hrs

Generator: 11 hrs

[Weather and wind forecasts are from ClearPoint Weather, a Saito 8 Supporting Sponsor.]

Day 1071 [Sep. 8/11 JST] – All's Well Under Ideal Sailing Conditions

Today's Report

Sep. 8/11 JST 

Position:  28°11'N, 141°42'E

Remaining to Hachijojima:  294 nm (ETA: 3.25 days)

Remaining to Yokohama:  428 nm / 99.5% finished, (ETA: ?)

A rested and clearly pleased Saito-san enjoyed a quiet daybreak under clear skies and slightly cooler temperatures, the engine off and coasting over moderate seas at about 4 kts under sail – just the way he likes it.

He reported that everything was fine aboard ship, but that progress was "slow."

The sudden appearance of Typhoon Kulap, No. 14 of the season under the Japanese Meteorological Agency's system, appears to present no threat to Saito-san as it moves at 11 kts NNW obliquely away from his position. As of 0800 today it was 525 nm west and should be at least545 nm further away by tomorrow.

Sudden appearance of Typhoon Kanap 525 nm west at 0800 and moving away

***
Distance in last 20 hours: 77 nm DOG / 74 nm DMG

Total distance completed: 28,114 nm

To Yokohama: 428 nm (measured)

To Hachijojima: 294 nm (measured)

Ave DMG over last 2 days of sailing: - nm (measured) 

ETA, Yokohama: ? days

Heading: 345°

Reported boat speed: 4.0 - 4.5 kt

Average boat speed: 3.7 kt

Weather: clear w/ scattered clouds; mild

Temperature: 28.0° C

Barometer: 1013 hPa

Wind (from): 8-10 kts SE

Waves: 1.0 - 1.5 m

Sails: Genoa 90%, staysail 0%, mainsail 2pt reef

Engine: 3 hrs

Generator: 4 hrs

[Weather and wind forecasts are from ClearPoint Weather, a Saito 8 Supporting Sponsor.]

Day 1070 [Sep. 7/11 JST] – Ready to Depart Chichijima

Today's Report

Sep. 7/11 JST 

Position:  27°03'N, 142°11'E (Ogasawara, Chichijima Island, Japan)

Remaining to Hachijojima:  360 nm (ETA: 3.5 days)

Remaining to Yokohama:  502 nm (ETA: ?)

Saito-san was in great spirits as he readied the boat for departure in late morning today. He confirmed he had cleared his departure through the Coast Guard at the station in Ogasawara Village, and has been given the OK to proceed to Hachijojima, an island normally closed to foreign-registered vessels. He received special permission.

It is not expected that he will require further repairs there, but Saito-san said he is worried about the condition of the mainsail, since the sail material is "very weak."

As of this morning the waves outside the harbor were about 1.5- 2.0 meters as shown on ClearPoint, with winds under 10 kts. They are expected to remain 7-14 kts out of the SE and E over the next several days.

He expects the 360 nm portion up to Hachijojima to take "about 3 days, plus 6 hours" which would have him arriving in late afternoon on Saturday.

Sea conditions are moderate with no severe weather forecast for at least the next 4 days. In the weather map, the front approx 250 nm to his north is expected to be gone within 2 days. A large high will predominate up to Japan for most of the week.

Day 1065 [Sep. 2/11 JST] – Typhoon Talas Update – Day 7 and Gone

 Today's Report

Sep. 2/11 JST 

Position:  27°03'N, 142°11'E (Ogasawara, Chichijima Island, Japan)

Remaining to Yokohama:  502 nm (ETA: ?)

NBSDIII was back at the jetty by 1500 today, motored there by Saito-san and assisted at the tie-up by several people from the Ogasawara Fishing Association. The skipper said he was ready for a good meal and a hot bath, not necessarily in that order, after a full week doing typhoon duty aboard his yacht.

Other than a little damage to the top of the mainsail, which he expected to fix tomorrow, he said NBSDIII appears to have come through Typhoon Talas virtually unscathed. In fact, the earlier motor repairs were given a bit of a test both going to, and returning from, the big ship mooring several hundred meters out into the harbor.

He said that other than a bit of smoke -- "it was not so much" -- the motor and newly installed replacement gearbox worked with no problems.

He said that following more trials after the waves reduce he will begin preparations for departure from Ogasawara, which he expected to occur either Monday or Tuesday. He expects to proceed to Hachijojima, an island 360 nm closer to Yokohama.

As of this morning the waves outside the harbor were 5 meters as shown on ClearPoint, reducing to 3.7-4.0 meters tomorrow as the effects of Talas begin to dissipate. By Monday sea conditions should return to normal where he is, and after a few more days ease as well along his route to Hachijojima. 

No other threatening weather is shown for at least the next 5 to 7 days on ClearPoint.

Day 1064 [Sep. 1/11 JST] – Typhoon Talas Update – Day 6

Today's Report

Sep. 1/11 JST 

Position:  27°03'N, 142°11'E (Ogasawara, Chichijima Island, Japan)

Remaining to Yokohama:  502 nm (ETA: ?)

It's 8 pm. Then 8:04.

At 8:30, a half-hour later than his usual evening check-in time during Talas, we called the Coast Guard station at Ogasawara to find out whether they had any news on Saito-san. "He's never this late, rarely misses his call time more than a minute or two, so we're a bit concerned," we explained to the duty officer.

He seems OK, we were told. Anyway, they could just barely see the boat far out in the roiling darkness of the harbor. She looked unchanged as best they could tell, still at the big ship mooring at the close of the 5^th day riding out Typhoon Talas.

11:30 pm came and bed called, but still not Saito-san.

We knew he was OK, despite the typhoon that was supposed to become a Category 3 but instead had meekly morphed back into a tropical storm, playing for a while as a mildly dangerous Category 1 with winds predicted to climb over 60 knots and gusts into the 70s.  Instead, Talas was easing by Chichijima at a very slow 6 knots, with sustained winds rarely hitting 40 knots. And while wind-waves were 1½ to 2 meters in the harbor, they were nothing the size they might have been had Talas reached her full potential.

Saito-san had made a judgment call, that the typhoon might potentially destroy NBSDIII, but not if he were on board tending her lines and fittings, tightening the running rigging, pumping out the bilge, and making sure that a human would be ready to come to her aid if the threat ever came close to being overwhelming.

Yet this wasn't just a typhoon and a very tired boat that's done a "wrong-way" circumnavigation these past three long years. This was also about a fearless man in a 77-year-old body with a heart condition, a newly surgically repaired knee, a scar from emergency abdominal surgery, and both wrists and an arm sprained and bloodied, in far less exhausting conditions. All on this one trip alone.

Meanwhile, the northern edge of Talas had already reached Tokyo and we could see the gray beginnings of what Saito-san had so far weathered on his boat alone, while on shore, as we heard yesterday from the Coast Guard, a good many island people have been anxiously watching to see if the battered yacht and her captain would be able to last still another day of what's become a very, very long storm. Talas is expected to be gone in 2 more days which is 3 more than had been expected.

We slept fitfully, waking at dawn and again calling the Coast Guard.

No, they said, still no word, "but we can see his boat and it looks fine." A few minutes the officer called back and informed us that a watchman on the big inter-island cruise ship that is also waiting out the storm reported seeing Saito-san puttering about the deck of NBSDIII. "He looks ginky," we were told. In good health and happy.

Sigh.

It's exactly 8 am, and our phone's ringtone announces he's on the other end.

"Good morning, Saito-san! Is everything OK? What happened? Why didn't you call last night?"

A moment's pause, and his voice comes through, uncharacteristically sheepish.

"Oh, uh, sorry … I forgot."

Typhoon-cum-tropical-storm Talas at 0800 this morning

Day 1063 [Aug. 31/11 JST] – Typhoon Talas Update – Day 5

 Today's Report

Aug. 31/11 JST 

Position:  27°03'N, 142°11'E (Ogasawara, Chichijima Island, Japan)

Remaining to Yokohama:  502 nm (ETA: ?)

Other than the passage of another tiring, bouncy day, nothing of much note to report onboard NBSDIII as Saito-san entered Day 5 of his solo Typhoon Talas soujourne. That's the good news. Happily, there continues to be no bad.

The second bit of welcome news is that Talas continues to moderate and by 1700 this afternoon had still not passed Chichijima, while maintaining sustained winds at under 36 kts. 

At mid-afternoon ClearPoint showed the center of the eye to be 275 nm due west of the harbor and continuing to move sharply away to the west. Moreover, from the trend of the last 48 hours it looks like Talas may even lose her official status as a typhoon and become a tropical storm. It will still be immense, just not as powerful as originally forecast.

Talas as of 1700 today

If projections hold, Saito-san will be enjoying clear skies in 2 days. By then much of central and northern Japan will be suffering through what is forecast to be a solid week of heavy rain. Tokyo is already muggily overcast.

Since Talas will still be directly in his path he will have to delay departure a few days until the heavy weather has largely cleared to the north up to at least the island of Hachijojima.

Saito-san reported that his morning close visual inspection showed no cracks in the standing rigging, but that several stanchion post bolts of the aft liferail had failed due, he said, to corrosion and movement. He confirmed he was able to replace the damaged bolts and does not consider it a problem. He said the mooring lines were all ok.

Projected course of Talas from the US Navy (click to enlarge)

Day 1062 [Aug. 30/11 JST] – Typhoon Talas Update – Day 4

Today's Report

Aug. 30/11 JST 

Position:  27°03'N, 142°11'E (Ogasawara, Chichijima Island, Japan)

Remaining to Yokohama:  502 nm (ETA: ?)

Last night was the hardest yet in terms of sustained wind yet Saito-san sounded surprisingly upbeat this morning as he entered the 4^th day of his solitary storm watch. The 80nm-wide eye of Talas had moved to within 119 nm SSW of his position as of 0800, and, while slowing, should pass during the next 48 hours. The storm will begin to gradually taper off at his location after tomorrow and should be completely north in 3 or 4 days.

He reported sustained winds in the high 30s with occasional gusts hitting 45 knots on NBSDIII's wind gauge.

The rain band that was strongly pummeling NBSDIII yesterday morning has passed, leaving Saito-san decidedly more cheery this morning, especially after he learned that winds were expected to be less than had been previously forecast for today. Where before we were seeing winds in the low 50s forecast for his position, our ClearPoint weather program is now showing 10 to 15 knots less sustained winds over the next 24 hours.

Saito-san reported that his regular early-morning close visual inspection of the standing rigging showed no sign of wear or cracks along the lower attachment points. He said he cannot know what's happening overhead at the mast connections, but believes them to be ok. He said the mooring lines all looked fine as well.

Talas's eye 119 nm SSW of Chichijima at 0800 today

***
To understand the sheer immensity of Talas in length and breadth, consider this:

The eye, when it passes west of Saito-san's position beginning tomorrow, will be 500 nm south of Yokohama.  At the same time, the first winds along its northern-most edge will start to be felt in Yokohama and Tokyo.

Our own measurements show Talas to be 1,200 nm from top to bottom and about 1,100 nm from west to east, giving it roughly the shape of an upside-down egg. That's 1.2 million sq. nm (up from the 800,000 sq. nm we measured on Sunday).

That means Talas is three times the size of Texas, give or take Delaware.

Hand points at Tokyo 500 nm to the north in this 37-hour projection