Day 555 [April 10/10] -- Calculating his ETA in Yokohama

Today's Report

April 10/10 0800 JST

Position:

11°34'S, 80°58'W (South Pacific Ocean, 1,769 nm from Valdivia)

Saito-san passed Lima during the day, as he boosted his DMG to 114 nm with improved winds mainly out of the SE.

It's been 15 full days since he left Valdivia, now nearly 1,750 nm distant on the chart. That translates to approx. 117 nm a day of DMG (actual miles of progress) toward Yokohama.

We have been discussing with Saito-san his ETA for Japan. It's certainly too early to get more than a very rough estimate, but here is our thinking:

Winds:

As spring turns into early summer in the Northern Hemisphere, it is expected that he will encounter mostly favorable winds as he comes west and north. Especially as he approaches Japan, the winds will be prevailing out of the south in the next two months. In the dead of Japan's summer the winds virtually stop, but barring some sort of damage to the sails, he is expected to arrive before mid July, and likely before the end of June. This is also before the start of the main typhoon season in the North Pacific that runs from May to November, with Japan usually seeing the most visits, when they occur, beginning in August.

Before that, as he passes Hawaii he will pick up the tradewinds that blow a constant 15-20 kts out of the east. This should put him on a continuous starboard tack for several weeks, giving him some of the best sailing conditions of the entire voyage.

Boat condition:

The sails, while showing considerable wear, were repaired during the stop in Valdivia. The new genoa is in good shape and the staysail is holding up. The main is probably OK, although Saito-san says he has been having trouble with the battens and batten cars that hold the sail to the mast. He also has a repaired genoa for use as a spare if it becomes necessary to replace the headsail.

Since keeping the batteries charged is required to operate the vessel's hydraulic steering, the engine and generator are both needed, with the aux. generator being the main recharging source. The original deep-cycling marine batteries were replaced in Punta Arenas with heavy-duty truck batteries after no marine batteries could be locally sourced there. This was a calculated risk since truck batteries are not considered dependable for extended use at sea with frequent recycling. However, there was no other choice and for now they seem to be working well and are expected to last until Japan. He has been cautioned to not completely deplete them before the next recharge.

Fuel:

Adequate, with 3,500 liters on board when he left Valdivia. That's enough for at least 300 days of generator use @ 10 hours a day (1 liter/hr). Engine use at mid-range RPMs will reduce that by approx. 6 liters per hour of operation, with engine use expected to be minimal. If absolutely necessary, he can make a fuel stop along the way. Oil and fuel filters are holding up. He said the dirty fuel problem seems to be over.

Skipper's condition:

Happy, "no, not tired," and eager to finish. Saito-san's right arm is still stiff from his hatch injury in February, but he says he is able to do most things with it "if I am careful."

Conclusion:

With these considerations, with little or no use of the ship's engine for propulsion, it can be expected that NBSDIII can average 116 -120 nm sailing the 9,000 remaining nautical miles to Yokohama. This computes to roughly 76 days, or an ETA of mid to late June. 

This morning Saito-san, when pressed to give an approximate landing date, said "I HOPE June 10."

***

We have just learned of another sailing vessel that has gone missing off the coast of Chile, possibly as a result of the massive earthquake in February. More on that tomorrow.

***

Distance in last 24 hours: 114 nm

Distance completed: 19,313 nm

To Yokohama: 8,986 nm, adjusted (distance remaining: 31.7%)

Heading: 300

Reported boat speed: 4.8 kt (day's average: 4.8 kt)

Weather: Overcast 

Temperature: 23.5° C

Barometer: 1008 hPa (steady)

Wind (from): Favorable 9-11 kt SSE -- expected to stay 13 - 15 kt mostly out of SE & SSE

Waves: 1.0 m

Current (from): 0.1 kt ENE

Engine rpms: 0 hrs

Generator: 10.0 hrs

Sails: Genoa 0%, staysail 100%, mainsail 1-pt reef

Position Map (click to enlarge)

Day 554 [April 9/10] -- Change of plans

Today's Report

April 9/10 0800 JST

Position:

13°13'S, 80°00'W (South Pacific Ocean, 1,638 nm from Valdivia)

Yesterday was his slowest day since leaving Valdivia as he found himself sans mainsail for several hours as he attempted to re-insert the No. 3 batten. He said the batten had been working its way out as a result of too frequent jibes caused by downwind sailing. For the 24-hour period he eked out 86 nm, compared to 160 nm 11 days ago.

So, despite having announced yesterday his intention to sail more directly north to the Equator, he's now decided to set a more westward course as can be seen at bottom. 

This will angle the boat against the SE and SSE wind for a broad reach, thus reduce or completely eliminate the need to jibe. A broad reach is a faster point of sail than running dead downwind, so there should be an improvement in DMG. As well, this will allow him to ride the stronger winds we are seeing on ClearPoint a few degrees below the intertropical convergence zone. In that equatorial zone, winds tend to be confused and weak as can be seen in the image.

Another benefit: This route should also be cooler as well. Today the temps were in the 22-23.5° C range (71.5-75° F). In his all-steel yacht, he will start to feel every added degree as he continues toward the mid-spring/early summer of the Northern Hemisphere.

ClearPoint Wind Image [Click to enlarge]:

In this image showing today's winds, the cross indicates the Equator. Below it, winds are moderately strong at 14-17 kts blowing mostly westward. In the convergence zone above the Equator, the winds are directionless, at 2 kts or less. 

***

Yesterday he awoke at sunrise to find no fewer than 15 flying fish on board, joined by 2 squid. Of the flying fish, he said only 5 were large enough for the boat's table. We asked if he turned them into sushi, but he said that with these fish there is a parasite hazard, so he broils or fries them to be on the safe side.

There are 64 species of flying fish, which can erupt from the water at speeds up to 70 kph to escape predators. In the case of these luckless fish, they shot right to the top of the Japanese food chain!

***

Distance in last 24 hours: 86 nm

Distance completed: 19,113 nm

To Yokohama: 9,157 nm (distance remaining: 32.4%)

Heading: 300

Reported boat speed: 4.5 kt (day's average: 3.6 kt)

Weather: Overcast 

Temperature: 23.5° C

Barometer: 1007 hPa (steady)

Wind (from): Favorable 10-14 kt SSE -- expected to stay 13 - 14 kt mostly out of SE & SSE

Waves: 1.0 -1.5 m

Current (from): 0.1 kt ENE

Engine rpms: 3 hrs

Generator: 7.0 hrs

Sails: Genoa 0%, staysail 100%, mainsail 1-pt reef

Position Map (click to enlarge)

Day 553 [April 8/10] -- A more direct run to the Equator

Today's Report

April 8/10 0800 JST

Position:

14°06'S, 78°50'W (South Pacific Ocean, 1,586 nm from Valdivia / 914 nm to Equator)

A bit slower day of 92 nm under sail. Saito-san has adjusted his route to make a more direct run to the Equator, reaching it sooner by about 900 nm (from our estimate of an obliquely westward 1,829 nm to an adjusted northerly 914 nm). At roughly 100 nm a day, that will get him there in 9 days.

Yesterday we mentioned the Andes Mountains, and would be remiss to not make a special comment. 

This massive mountain range runs down the western edge of the continent, extending over seven countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela. The range is over 7,000 km (4,300 mi) long, 200 km (120 mi) to 700 km (430 mi) wide and has an average height of about 4,000 m (13,000 ft). [By comparison, Mt. Fuji in Japan is a comparable 3,777 m, while Mt. Everest in Nepal is more than double at 8,480 m.]

To a sailor, the presence of mountains along a coast can have several consequences. To vessels close in, fierce winds called "williwaws" can produce sudden, near-hurricane force local gusts that can slam a sailboat on its beam ends and keep it pressed down until the vessel founders or the winds finally relent with an equal suddenness. Early accounts of explorers, including the captain of the British ship "Beagle" carrying evolutionary theorist Charles Darwin, recorded encounters with the highly dangerous winds while charting the Strait of Magellan and Cape Horn.

To ships well off the coast, weather "trapped" by the mountains can causes conditions such as Saito-san has seen for the past week of unrelenting overcast skies. There's been little or no rain, but also almost no sun, just continuous and monotonous gray skies. 

Saito-san today sounded a bit weary of the virtually non-stop "sameness" of the past 12 days since departing Valdivia, marked by winds of 6 to 12 kts mainly from the SSE. Due to their following nature he's had to be careful to avoid accidental jibes so has relied more recently on just the self-jibing staysail. Being smaller, boat speed is down about 1.5 kts, compared to when the genoa is in use. He says the much-larger genoa is difficult to move from port to starboard (or vice versa) when the stern goes through the eye of the wind. This is what led to the tangled genoa sheet earlier, as it is easy for the sail or a sheet to be caught on the forward stays.

Here's what can happen in such a situation on a smaller boat: Video

On a crewed vessel, a controlled jibe is normal and usually quickly corrected if anything goes wrong; to a solo sailor, a difficult or unexpected jibe can be fatiguing, dangerous, and potentially sail- or rigging-damaging.

Until Saito-san can put the wind more on either side of the vessel while maintaining the route he wants, the compromise is to rely on the smaller, more manageable staysail while accepting reduced DMG. 

In the meantime he is getting close to the intertropical convergence zone characterized by inconsistent, fickle winds. So he may be about to leave that somewhat wearying "sameness" well behind.   

***

Distance in last 24 hours: 92 nm

Distance completed: 19,113 nm

To Yokohama: 9,157 nm (distance remaining: 32.4%)

Heading: 305

Reported boat speed: 4.8 kt (day's average: 3.8 kt)

Weather: Overcast 

Temperature: 20.0° C

Barometer: 1007 hPa (steady)

Wind (from): Favorable 10-12 kt SSE -- expected to stay 10 - 14 kt mostly out of SSE

Waves: 1.5 -2.0 m

Current (from): 0.2 kt S

Engine rpms: 0 hrs

Generator: 10.0 hrs

Sails: Genoa 0%, staysail 100%, mainsail 1-pt reef

Position Map (click to enlarge)