Day 1010 [July 9/11 JST] – Wicked Winds Turn Helpful in Final Miles to Ogasawara

Today's Report

July 9/11 0845 JST 

Position:  26°41'N, 141°40'E

Remaining to Yokohama:  536 nm (ETA: ? days)

Remaining to Ogasawara:  35 nm (ETA: 7-9 hrs)

At sunrise it appeared Saito-san was facing a hard and long upwind slog as the winds were blowing out of the NE, directly from where Ogasawara was waiting over the horizon about 40 nm away. 

The seas were virtually flat at just 0.4 m, but the all-important winds were not cooperating. He called at 0600 to say he was on an oblique tack nearly 70 degrees off where he needed to go, making about 3.5 kts, but basically in the "wrong" direction. It had been like that for several hours and he was already exhausted.

The dismal prospect was for multiple tacking maneuvers throughout the day as he struggled to beat upwind...

...and then the wicked winds of the north changed to nearly perfect.

Judging from ClearPoint, the winds shifted to out of the E & ESE and will remain highly favorable at 8-10 kts for the rest of the day. They will blow off his starboard quarter, or even abeam, which are both very good points of sail while on, or near, the heading he needs – 045° – to Ogasawara.

Favorable winds arrive out of the ESE; 
Ogasawara (Chichijima) shown at upper right corner.

At 0845 he called the fishing boat captain, a member of the Ogasawara Fishermen's Association, who has been arranged to do the final tow into port of the engineless NBSDIII. The captain then called us to report their conversation.

Saito-san gave his updated position as 34 nm away. They agreed to rendezvous at a convergent point in-between, and then Saito-san will either pick up the tow, or if the winds remain favorable, they will proceed on to port together.

The estimated time of arrival: between 1400 and 1600 hours, give or take a bit of continued good luck.


UPDATE
They arrived at the fishing harbor in Ogasawara at 1630.

***

Distance in last 24 hours: 61 nm DOG / 61 nm DMG

Total distance completed: 28,010 nm

To Yokohama: 536 nm (measured)

To Ogasawara: 36 nm (measured)

Average daily DMG over last 4 days of sailing: 32.0 nm (measured) 

ETA, Ogasawara: 7-9 hrs

ETA, Yokohama: ? days

Heading: 330° changing to 040°

Reported boat speed: 3.5 kt

Average boat speed: 2.6 kt

Weather: Broken clouds, warm

Temperature: 28.0° C

Barometer: 1012 hPa 

Wind (from): 7-9 kts E & ESE
Waves: 0.5 m

Sails: Genoa 90%, staysail 0%, mainsail 3pt reef

Engine: 0 hrs

Generator: 0 hrs

[Weather and wind forecasts are from ClearPoint Weather, a Saito 8 Supporting Sponsor.]

Day 1009 [July 8/11 JST] – Looks Good for Ogasawara by Mid-day Saturday

Today's Report

July 8/11 0800 JST 

Position:  26°02'N, 142°32'E

Remaining to Yokohama:  573 nm (ETA: ? days)

Remaining to Ogasawara:  73 nm (ETA: 1.5 days)

Yesterday's winds held, giving Saito-san a respectable 41 nm DMG as he approaches a likely arrival in Ogasawara by mid-day tomorrow (Saturday JST). Winds were to continue out of the ENE and NE today at 6-10 kts, for close to a beam reach.

No adverse weather is seen within the next 3 days on ClearPoint, although a pair of cyclonic lows appear to be forming. One is toward his west, east of the Philippines, 400 nm away. The other is weaker but closer at 250 nm to his southeast. Both are characterized by revolving counter-clockwise winds centered on barometric lows of 996 and 1006 mb. ClearPoint shows them developing in their respective locations over the next 2-4 days, moving northward.

Two lows shown in ClearPoint projection 4 days from today

If nasty weather does come from those two lows, by then he will be in harbor and enjoying a well-deserved break after almost constant hand-steering during the two weeks since the aux generator quit -- and with it, the hydraulic steering.

During the past 24-hr period Saito-san made 41 nm DMG toward his Ogasawara destination. At 0800, he was just 35 nm southeast of the bottom of Hahajima (Island) which he plans to pass a comfortably safe 3 - 5 nm away on the leeward side of the island.

 He reported a boat speed of 2.5 kts on a heading of 310-320° at the time of his morning call.

***

Distance in last 24 hours: 41 nm DOG / 41 nm DMG

Total distance completed: 27,975 nm

To Yokohama: 573 nm (measured)

To Ogasawara: 73  nm (measured)

Average daily DMG over last 4 days of sailing: 27.0 nm (measured) 

ETA, Ogasawara: 1.5 days

ETA, Yokohama: ? days

Heading: 310-320°

Reported boat speed: 2.5 kt

Average boat speed: 1.7 kt

Weather: Broken clouds, warm, squalls in the area

Temperature: 28.0° C

Barometer: 1012 hPa 

Wind (from): 6-8 kts ENE & NE

Waves: 0.5 m

Sails: Genoa 90%, staysail 0%, mainsail 3pt reef

Engine: 0 hrs

Generator: 0 hrs

[Weather and wind forecasts are from ClearPoint Weather, a Saito 8 Supporting Sponsor.]

Day 1008 [July 7/11 JST] – Improved Winds for Possible Ogasawara ETA in 2 Days

Today's Report

July 7/11 0800 JST 

Position:  26°00'N, 143°16'E

Remaining to Yokohama:  607 nm (ETA: ? days)

Remaining to Ogasawara:  111 nm (ETA: 2-2.5 days)

This day brought a promise of fresher winds, as they shift to out of the northeast and gradually increase throughout the period to as much as 9 kts.

This promises to break an almost windless 4 days in which he has struggled to make just 102 nm.

If the improved winds hold, NBSDIII may be arriving in Ogasawara as early as Saturday morning or mid-day.

During the past 24-hr period Saito-san made 27 nm, 25 nm of those toward his destination on a route that takes him under the island of Hahajima, then up 40 nm to Chichijima and the village of Ogasawara.

At 0800, he reported a boat speed of 2 kts on a heading of 230-250°.

No adverse weather is seen on ClearPoint, other than occasional passing squalls.

A few hours ago, this cluster of lightning bolts was just 80 nm away. All had struck within a 1-hr time period.

Squall with several dozen lightning strikes in 1 hour  80 nm away

***
Distance in last 24 hours: 26 nm DOG / 25 nm DMG

Total distance completed: 27,934 nm

To Yokohama: 607 nm (measured)

To Ogasawara: 111 nm (measured)

Average daily DMG over last 4 days of sailing: 26.0 nm (measured) 

ETA, Ogasawara: 2-2.5 days

ETA, Yokohama: ? days

Heading: 230-250°

Reported boat speed: 2.0 kt

Average boat speed: 1.1 kt

Weather: Broken clouds, warm, squalls in the area

Temperature: 28.0° C

Barometer: 1011 hPa 

Wind (from): 4-5 kts ESE

Waves: 0.5 m

Sails: Genoa 90%, staysail 0%, mainsail 3pt reef

Engine: 0 hrs

Generator: 0 hrs

[Weather and wind forecasts are from ClearPoint Weather, a Saito 8 Supporting Sponsor.]

Day 1007 [July 6/11 JST] – 1 nm DMG Since Last Night

Today's Report

July 6/11 0800 JST 

Position:  25°58'N, 143°44'E

Remaining to Yokohama:  630 nm (ETA: ? days)

Remaining to Ogasawara:  136 nm (ETA: 3-4 days)

Still another day of weak winds that saw him eke out barely 7 nm made good for the 24-hr period and, of that, just 1 nm since last night. 


He described the seas as flat and virtually windless. "I think the wind is either zero, or maybe sometimes 3 kts," he guessed. The Kurosio Current, his one source of reprieve from a dead stop, is edging him closer to Ogasawara, now 136 nm away.

He did see 19 nm of DOG (distance overground) that took him up northward about 9 nm, then back south again the same amount as he jibed yesterday. At 0800, he reported a boat speed of about 1 kt on a heading of 220-240°.

No adverse weather is seen on ClearPoint, other than occasional passing squalls.

***
Distance in last 24 hours: 19 nm DOG / 7 nm DMG

Total distance completed: 27,907 nm

To Yokohama: 630 nm (measured)

To Ogasawara: 136 nm (measured)

Average daily DMG over last 4 days of sailing: 38.5 nm (measured) 

ETA, Ogasawara: 3-4 days

ETA, Yokohama: ? days

Heading: 220-240°

Reported boat speed: 1.0 kt

Average boat speed: 0.8 kt

Weather: Broken clouds, warm, squalls in the area

Temperature: 29.0° C

Barometer: 1011 hPa 

Wind (from): 0-3 kts WSW

Waves: 1.0 m

Sails: Genoa 90%, staysail 0%, mainsail 3pt reef

Engine: 0 hrs

Generator: 0 hrs

[Weather and wind forecasts are from ClearPoint Weather, a Saito 8 Supporting Sponsor.]

Day 1006 [July 5/11 JST] – Better By A Bit

Today's Report

July 5/11 0800 JST 

Position:  25°52'N, 143°52'E

Remaining to Yokohama:  638 nm (ETA: ? days)

Remaining to Ogasawara:  143 nm (ETA: 2-4 days)

A small change for the better yesterday as the lingering high moved east and he finds himself in steadier, if still weak, winds from the SSW on a good point of sail to Ogasawara. 

He achieved 37 nm of DMG yesterday, a 3 nm improvement over the previous 24-hr period, to put him to within 143 nm of Ogasawara. At the time of his call, the wind was blowing at 4 kts out of the WSW. "It's a little better now," he agreed, compared to his near-drifting conditions yesterday. He reported a boat speed of 2 to 2.5 kts on a heading of 330-340°.

It was reassuring to see that the developing low we've been watching over the past few days now appears to be nearly gone. Up in Tokyo an unrelated gale warning was in effect for over 24 hours, but the sometimes 30-knot gusts never came anywhere near Saito-san, and were well to the northeast by this morning.

***

Distance in last 24 hours: 40 nm DOG / 37 nm DMG

Total distance completed: 27,888 nm

To Yokohama: 638 nm (measured)

To Ogasawara: 143 nm (measured)

Average daily DMG over last 4 days of sailing: 36.5 nm (measured) 

ETA, Ogasawara: 2-4 days

ETA, Yokohama: ? days

Heading: 330-340°

Reported boat speed: 2.0 – 2.5 kts

Average boat speed: 1.4 kts

Weather: Broken clouds, warm, squalls in the area

Temperature: 29.0° C

Barometer: 1013 hPa 

Wind (from): 4 kts WSW

Waves: 1.0 m

Sails: Genoa 90%, staysail 0%, mainsail 3pt reef

Engine: 0 hrs

Generator: 0 hrs

[Weather and wind forecasts are from ClearPoint Weather, a Saito 8 Supporting Sponsor.]

Day 1005 [July 4/11 JST] – Weak Winds All Over the Compass

 Today's Report

July 4/11 0800 JST 

Position:  25°54'N, 144°32'E

Remaining to Yokohama:  672 nm (ETA: ? days)

Remaining to Ogasawara:  177 nm (ETA: 3-5 days)

Winds all but vanished during the night, prompting him to remark during the 0800 call that the "boat is almost drifting." A largely stationary high has broken winds coming in from all over the compass  -- ESE at 0800, SSW in 1 hr, WNW in 7 hrs, and SW in 19 hrs, and all weak at 1 – 6 kts.

Earlier steady winds gave him 34 nm of DMG yesterday, nudging him to within 177 nm of Ogasawara. At the time of his call, they were blowing out of the ESE at 1-3 kts, for a "1 or 1½ knot boat speed," he estimated. 

ClearPoint predicts the winds will increase slightly to 6 kts out of SSW, then drop off to almost nothing in about 12 hrs as the high passes over his position.

That low we saw yesterday developing about 900 nm to his SSW is still showing on ClearPoint but has yet to produce any marine weather service alerts.

***
Distance in last 24 hours: 34 nm DOG / 34 nm DMG

Total distance completed: 27,854 nm

To Yokohama: 677 nm (measured)

To Ogasawara: 177 nm (measured)

Average daily DMG over last 4 days of sailing: 45 nm (measured) 

ETA, Ogasawara: 3-5 days

ETA, Yokohama: ? days

Heading: 320°

Reported boat speed: 1.0 – 1.5 kts

Average boat speed: 1.4 kts

Weather: Overcast, warm, squalls in the area

Temperature: 29.0° C

Barometer: 1011 hPa 

Wind (from): 1-3 kts ESE

Waves: 1.5 m

Sails: Genoa 90%, staysail 0%, mainsail 3pt reef

Engine: 0 hrs

Generator: 0 hrs

[Weather and wind forecasts are from ClearPoint Weather, a Saito 8 Supporting Sponsor.]

Day 1004 [July 3/11 JST] – Nice Beam Reach for 77 nm DMG

 Today's Report

July 3/11 0800 JST 

Position:  25°51'N, 145°09'E

Remaining to Yokohama:  705 nm (ETA: ? days)

Remaining to Ogasawara:  210 nm (ETA: 3-5 days)

Moderate but steady winds on a beam reach gave him a quite good 77 nm of DMG yesterday, sending him to within 210 nm of Ogasawara as of the morning's call. That was a 35 nm improvement over the previous 24-hr period. At the time of his call, winds were blowing out of the SSW at 10 kts, for a reported 4.0-kt boat speed.

We're starting to watch a tightly spinning low developing about 900 nm to his SSW [corrected from 400 nm stated earlier] that is starting to show up on ClearPoint. No weather warnings have been issued – yet – but it could turn into a tropical storm tracking northward parallel to him in a few days. 

That low might actually be a benefit. ClearPoint shows the winds at his 13-hours-from-now position falling to 3 or 4 kts out of the west. If so, a low might help to break up the lingering high and lift him the rest of the way to Ogasawara in about 4 days.

***

Distance in last 24 hours: 77 nm DOG / 77 nm DMG

Total distance completed: 27,820 nm

To Yokohama: 705 nm (measured)

To Ogasawara: 210 nm (measured)

Average daily DMG over last 4 days of sailing: 52 nm (measured) 

ETA, Ogasawara: 3-5 days

ETA, Yokohama: ? days

Heading: 290°

Reported boat speed: 4.0 kts

Average boat speed: 3.2 kts

Weather: Overcast, warm, squalls in the area

Temperature: 29.0° C

Barometer: 1012 hPa 

Wind (from): 10 kts SSW

Waves: 1.5 m

Sails: Genoa 90%, staysail 0%, mainsail 3pt reef

Engine: 0 hrs

Generator: 0 hrs

[Weather and wind forecasts are from ClearPoint Weather, a Saito 8 Supporting Sponsor.]