July 17/11 0800 JST
Position: 27°03'N, 142°11'E (Ogasawara, Chichijima Island, Japan)
Remaining to Yokohama: 502 nm (ETA: ? days)
Winds were 30 kts or "maybe more," Saito-san estimated during our call this morning.
Typhoon Ma-On is continuing to make her presence felt, stretching out her lingering visit along Saito-san's planned route in devious ways, including circling around to the east so that she will be centered on his next destination – Hachijojima – in 3 days. A day or two after that, she should be well out to sea and no longer a threat.
Here's how it looks on the U.S. Navy's projection.
And on ClearPoint.
|White arrow marks Chichijima's location|
At the moment as Ma-On passes west of Chichijima (Ogasawara Village), she is ranked a Category 4 on a scale of 5. Winds at the center are sustained at 60-70 kts, gusting to at least 90, with seas at a massive 12-14 m.
So NBSDIII will remain in port until at least Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a second tropical storm, named "Tokage," is still threatening Chichijima. This storm was about 280 nm south at 0800 and moving NNW.
When he leaves he is expected to sail the 385 nm to Hachijojima, where a replacement engine exhaust hose is already waiting for him. It will take the place of the hose that was patched with layers of tape in Ogasawara, where there is no airport and only twice-weekly ferry service under normal weather conditions, thus no quick parts delivery could be arranged.
Once in Hachijo, hose replacement and a quick engine check should take just a few hours by the island's certified Yanmar mechanic. It can then be decided whether Saito-san can leave under the sea conditions expected for the rest of the voyage.
It is 136 nm from Hachijojima to Yokohama, or a bit over 1 day if motor-assisted at a cruising speed that won't stress the engine.