July 23/11 0800 JST
Position: 27°03'N, 142°11'E (Ogasawara, Chichijima Island, Japan)
Remaining to Yokohama: 502 nm (ETA: 5-6 days)
After a final assessment of the weather, both current and projected, Saito-san confirmed this morning he will leave Chichijima before noon.
Winds were expected to reduce within 7 hrs to 8 kts W, down from 14 WNW at 0800 this morning. Seas were 3 m, expected to reduce to about 2.5 m by later today. Area thunderstorms will be followed by several days of clear to partly cloudy skies, weakish winds, and eventually a return of the East Trades.
We've been watching two developing lows to the SSW about 600-700 nm away. Both cyclonic lows will grow according to ClearPoint but as they do they will move WNW, in the direction of Taiwan. That should spare Saito-san any grief as he heads obliquely away to the north even should one develop into the season's next typhoon.
There have been plans for him to make another repair stop in Hachijojima 385 nm north, but this morning he said he now expects to continue straight through to Yokohama. This will be decided 100% later – if the engine trouble returns, and if winds are not favorable, Hachijojima with its certified Yanmar mechanic will still remain an option.
Total distance completed: 28,046 nm
To Hachijojima (if needed): 385 nm (measured)
To Yokohama: 502 nm (measured)