Day 1062 [Aug. 30/11 JST] – Typhoon Talas Update – Day 4

Today's Report
Aug. 30/11 JST 

Position:  27°03'N, 142°11'E (Ogasawara, Chichijima Island, Japan)
Remaining to Yokohama:  502 nm (ETA: ?)

Last night was the hardest yet in terms of sustained wind yet Saito-san sounded surprisingly upbeat this morning as he entered the 4th day of his solitary storm watch. The 80nm-wide eye of Talas had moved to within 119 nm SSW of his position as of 0800, and, while slowing, should pass during the next 48 hours. The storm will begin to gradually taper off at his location after tomorrow and should be completely north in 3 or 4 days.

He reported sustained winds in the high 30s with occasional gusts hitting 45 knots on NBSDIII's wind gauge.

The rain band that was strongly pummeling NBSDIII yesterday morning has passed, leaving Saito-san decidedly more cheery this morning, especially after he learned that winds were expected to be less than had been previously forecast for today. Where before we were seeing winds in the low 50s forecast for his position, our ClearPoint weather program is now showing 10 to 15 knots less sustained winds over the next 24 hours.

Saito-san reported that his regular early-morning close visual inspection of the standing rigging showed no sign of wear or cracks along the lower attachment points. He said he cannot know what's happening overhead at the mast connections, but believes them to be ok. He said the mooring lines all looked fine as well.

Talas's eye 119 nm SSW of Chichijima at 0800 today

To understand the sheer immensity of Talas in length and breadth, consider this:

The eye, when it passes west of Saito-san's position beginning tomorrow, will be 500 nm south of Yokohama.  At the same time, the first winds along its northern-most edge will start to be felt in Yokohama and Tokyo.

Our own measurements show Talas to be 1,200 nm from top to bottom and about 1,100 nm from west to east, giving it roughly the shape of an upside-down egg. That's 1.2 million sq. nm (up from the 800,000 sq. nm we measured on Sunday).

That means Talas is three times the size of Texas, give or take Delaware.

Hand points at Tokyo 500 nm to the north in this 37-hour projection